Calif. marriage ruling could come amid 2008 campaign - Washington Blade

Calif. marriage ruling could come amid 2008 campaign - Washington Blade

Too many variables to predict impact on race, experts say
JOEY DiGUGLIELMO Friday, December 14, 2007
Nobody can say with certainty when the California State Supreme Court will rule in a same-sex marriage case it has agreed to hear but observers predict a decision will come in 2008, perhaps just in time to bring the controversial issue back to the front burner during the height of the presidential campaign.Everyone with a stake in the case is in waiting mode as oral arguments haven’t been scheduled. The court said this week one reason it’s taking so long to schedule is because the case has attracted more “friend of the court” briefs than any other case in recent memory, according to Chief Justice Ronald George.He said 45 such briefs from 145 different lobbying organizations have been filed.“We have a lot of material before us,” George told the Associated Press this week. “There is a vast amount of literature to read.”The Supreme Court agreed to hear the case a year ago. All the required written legal arguments were filed by Nov. 15. George said the court expects to hear the case in 2008, then rule within 90 days of oral arguments. The case is not on the court’s January calendar.Same-sex marriage is controversial everywhere in the country but California, which offers domestic partnerships, has had an especially contentious battle. In 2000, Proposition 22, a “protection of marriage initiative,” was approved by 61 percent of voters and represents the only time California voters have had a chance to weigh in on the issue. Citing that vote, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has twice vetoed gay marriage bills passed by state legislators. The second veto came in October. Schwarzenegger, though, has said publicly that if the state Supreme Court rules in favor of the six couples in the case, he’ll abide by the wishes of the court.Meanwhile, efforts are underway for another ballot initiative. Anti-gay groups Protect Marriage and Vote Yes Marriage have eyed the November ballot. If such a measure passes, supporters say it would “protect” marriage from judges and elected officials. While Proposition 22 defined marriage as between a man and a woman in the state family code, the proposed “Voters’ Right to Protect Marriage Initiative” would be a constitutional marriage amendment comparable to those other states already have in place. “This means that California voters have the right and the ability to override the judges and politicians to protect marriage for a man and a woman once and for all in the state Constitution,” a press release on Vote Yes Marriage says.Gay political observers and insiders say it’s too early and there are too many variables to say how this might unfold in relation to the presidential race but that hasn’t stopped some from speculating.California state Assemblyman Mark Leno, who sponsored the gay marriage bills of 2005 and 2007, said if the court rules in favor of Equality California and Schwarzenegger is true to his word, the presidential race could get a lot more interesting.“It’s conceivable that we could have a Republican governor on our side and a presidential Democratic nominee against him on this issue,” said Leno, who’s gay.None of the leading Democratic presidential candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards — support gay marriage.Leno is optimistic about the case.“I think we have a very good chance of winning,” he said.Other gay political observers are cautious of prognosticating on the matter with so many factors still undecided such as who will secure the Democratic nomination and how and when the California Supreme Court will rule.“It’s hard to speculate with so many what-ifs,” said Patrick Sammon, president of Log Cabin Republicans, a gay GOP group.On same-sex marriage in the ’08 race, Sammon said he “doesn’t expect it to be a huge issue” and that candidates now would be unwise to “use gay issues as a political tool.”Damien LaVera, spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee, wouldn’t speculate on the impact of marriage on the race, but did say he thinks American voters will be more concerned about the Iraq war, the economy and national security than same-sex marriage.Geoff Kors, executive director of Equality California, said that although the governor has twice vetoed Leno’s gay marriage bills, Schwarzenegger has signed an unprecedented number of pro-gay state bills such as one that provides state funds to aid gay victims of domestic violence, another juvenile justice bill that protects youth from discrimination and another that eases the ability for gay families to choose a common family name and register jointly for state income taxes. As for the presidential hopefuls, Kors had harsh words.“How can you say you’re for equality but against same-sex marriage?” he said.