N.Y. Marriage: Hey, You Never Know | News | The Advocate

N.Y. Marriage: Hey, You Never Know | News | The Advocate:

By Julie Bolcer
NY SENATE X390 | ADVOCATE.COM

There is work to be done in 2011, but marriage equality advocates are betting on improved odds with a Republican senate majority in New York State.

As 2011 dawns, observers identify three states with strong prospects for achieving marriage equality in the new year: Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island. Among the three, New York boasts the largest population by far, with nearly 20 million residents, and as the media capital of the country, the state guarantees to put an even more intense spotlight on marriage equality as landmark legal cases make their way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

“If some of the federal cases do wind up getting to the court in 2012, one of the main things we can all do to help shape good results in the Supreme Court down the road is to have more wins in 2011 in places like New York,” said Evan Wolfson, executive director of Freedom to Marry, one of many groups working on lobbying and public education campaigns in the state. “Everyone has a stake in winning.”

Last December, New York got closest to flirting with marriage equality, which ended in heartbreaking defeat at the hands of a Democratic-controlled senate elected with millions of dollars in gay support in 2008. Marriage equality lost by a vote of 38 to 24, with all 30 Republicans and eight Democrats, including some who seemed to hint otherwise, voting against the measure. The state assembly has already passed the bill three times, and polls indicate that solid majorities of New Yorkers support marriage equality.

Although Democrats could still dispute the November election results, Republicans expect to be in control with a 32-30 majority when the senate convenes in early 2011. Some observers view the new dynamic as a reason to feel pessimistic about marriage equality, but many more seem to think the leadership change, combined with evolving public attitudes and other favorable political developments, leaves advocates in their strongest position to date. Cautious optimism rules the day in New York, the state with the legislature repeatedly ranked as the nation’s most dysfunctional, and where the lottery motto once proclaimed, “Hey, you never know.”

First and foremost, despite the all but assured loss of the Democratic majority, the senate saw a net gain of two votes for marriage equality this election cycle, bringing the total number of anticipated yes votes to 26. Where many insiders believe the winning formula involves a bipartisan effort with anywhere from 27 to 29 Democrats and three to five Republicans in favor, the numeric victory of 32 votes now appears more within reach.

More important than the raw vote count, however, is the way the new votes were won. Groups like the Tim Gill–financed PAC Fight Back New York, the Empire State Pride Agenda, and the Human Rights Campaign demonstrated their ability to harness money and human power toward the defeat of incumbents who voted against marriage equality. Targeted efforts in November ended the careers of two long-term incumbents, a Republican from Queens and a Democrat from Buffalo. ............

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